European Strategic Deterrence Game

The National Defense University (NDU) and Swedish Defence University (SEDU) have the pleasure to invite you to participate in a strategic game aimed at discussing deterrence and horizontal escalation in the Arctic, High North and Eastern Europe.

For the last several years the U.S. National Defense University and the Swedish Defense University have conducted collaborative research on security developments across the Arctic, the European High North and Europe's eastern border with Russia. We have focused on the regional security implications of geopolitical competition between the U.S., Russia and China, the immediate and longer-term effects of the Ukraine war, and accelerating climate change. Much of our work has centered on evolving threat perceptions and deterrence policies of the seven Western-oriented Arctic nations, and coordination between those states and with sub-national actors, in today’s circumstances and in several alternative futures.

Another important perspective from previous games is how these developments are linked to Eastern Europe, in particular the Black Sea region, and the implications for broader European security. That the regions of Europe - the Arctic, the High North, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea - are connected. For that reason, part of the preparations for the game have been done in cooperation with New Strategy Center in Bucharest, Romania.

The research shows several areas that require further, and urgent studies given monumental changes in the European security situation and the Transatlantic link. A development driven by accelerating climate change, Russian and Chinese ambition and actions, an ongoing major war in Europe, changes of the US engagement in Europe, US new Arctic Strategy, enlargement and realignment of NATO to collective defense, increased cooperation between NATO and the EU and rapid technological developments. Combined these factors cause the most uncertain, with both challenges and possibilities, security environment since the Cold War.

The European Strategic Deterrence Game aims to discuss several important aspects of this rapidly developing security situation.

The goal of this exercise is to identify possible current-day actions that may move the West and NATO toward an active instead of reactive posture to prevent a potential, political and societal worst-case scenario in the 2027-2028 timeframe. The exercise objectives are:

1. Determine approaches that increase the level of deterrence in Europe, irrespective of political or societal dynamics, to prevent a worse-case scenario.
   
2. Discuss the risks and possibilities of regionalization of European security.
3. Discuss the effects of a reduced U.S. engagement in Europe on European security.
4. Discuss horizontal escalation, and de-escalation, along the whole Eastern flank of Europe, from the Arctic to the Black Sea region.

The results of the game will be used in ongoing research by National Defense University and Swedish Defence University.

The game aims to bring together both decision-makers and experts from selected countries and organizations in Europe and the US.

More information about the event

• Date: Mar 27, 2025
• Time: 9:00 AM—4:00 PM
• Location: National Guard Association of the United States, One Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001

Registration will be open from 08:30 AM.